Demand Continues to Pressure Supply in Loudoun County Real Estate Market

Demand Continues to Pressure Supply in Loudoun County Real Estate Market

Low inventory continued the strong sellers’ market and stagnant sales growth in the Loudoun County real estate market, but there were some indications that the trend may be ending, according to an analysis for April 2018 released this week by the Dulles Area Association of Realtors.
The analysis, which was prepared by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis by analyzing Bright MLS housing data from MarketStats by ShowingTime, showed that active listings declined for the 34thconsecutive month, reaching the lowest April inventory number in more than a decade.
At the end of April, there were only 1,164 homes for sale in Loudoun County, which represents a 15.4 percent decrease from April 2017 and left a 2.1-month supply based on past sales activity. A normal or healthy market has a six- to nine-month supply.
April’s 636 closed sales was a 1.2 decrease year-over-year, after a rare increase had been seen in the market for the month of March. According to the analysis, “the return to stagnant sales growth indicates low inventory suppressing sales which in turn limit choices for prospective buyers.”
“Everyone who follows real estate is well aware that the county’s active listings are low and we have an overall housing shortage for home buyers,” said Jackie Lawler, DAAR’s immediate past president who is with Jack Lawler Realty Company in Ashburn. “However, it is interesting to note that there have been two areas in Loudoun County with double-digit (increases in) median sales prices in April (over  2017) and they are at opposite sides of the County — Purcellville (25.6 percent) and Great Falls (13.2 percent).


The low inventory sustained a strong a sellers’ market, which is illustrated by the median sale price reaching $475,000 – a 1.2 percent compared to last year – and both condos and townhomes reaching their highest median sales price on record at $317,000 and $440,000, respectively.
Homes also continued to sell faster than last year, with homes being on the market an average of six days — down slightly from seven in April. This is the lowest median DOM in more than a decade.
Loudoun County home sellers received, on average, 98.8 percent of original list price in April — a slight decrease from the same period in 2017.
There were, however, two positive signs in the analysis. New pending sales – contracts signed but not closed — increased 5.9 percent to 787 and were 4.9 percent higher than the five‐year April average of 720. New listing activity increased 9.4 percent in April, as 1,116 new homes were added to the market.
“This may translate to increased sales in the coming months,” according to the analysis.

Other findings in the analysis include:

  • April’s median home sale price of $475,000 is 1.2 percent greater than last year at this time, and 6.9 percent greater than the five-year April average.
  •  Condo prices are up 9.3 percent year-over-year at $317,000—the highest median sales price for condos on record. The median sales price for townhomes was $440,000, the highest median sales price for townhomes on record and a 3.5 percent increase from 2017. Detached, single-family median sale prices stand at $635,000, up 5.8 percent from April 2017.
  •  Median price levels were up in seven of the 10 Loudoun ZIP codes that had 20 or more sales in April 2018. Purcellville’s 20132 saw the largest increase in median sales price, as it increased 25.6 percent to $597,495.
  • Great Falls’ 22066  ZIP code saw a 13.2 percent increase in median sales price, and with a median sales price of $1,194,000 it is now Loudoun County’s most expensive zip code.
  • Sterling’s 20165, Ashburn’s 20147 and Leesburg’s 20175 all saw year over year decreases in median sales price. Sterling’s 20164 became the county’ s least expensive zip code with a median sale price of $399,000 in April.
  • Loudoun County had 636 closed sales in April—89 more than last month and 12 sales than in April 2017. So far in 2018, sales are down 1.1 percent compared to the same period in 2017.
  • Townhomes were the only home segment to increase in sales from April 2017 with 238 closed sales— an increase of 7.2 percent. Detached home sales decreased 5.6 percent from last year to 301 sales and sales of condos declined 5.8 percent from last April to 97.
  • Sterling’s 20164 saw the largest decrease in number of sales, declining 19.6 year-over-year. Chantilly’s 20152 (‐11.6 percent), Leesburg’s 20175 (‐7.9 percent), and Ashburn’s 20148 (‐7.3 percent) also had decreases in home sales compared to April 2017.
  • Contract activity increased 5.9 percent from April 2017 to 787 new pending sales. New pending sales in April were 4.9 percent greater than the 5‐year April average of 750.
  • Contract activity in the condo segment increased 29.0 percent from April 2017 to 120 new pending sales. Detached homes (395 new pending sales) and townhomes (272 new pending sales) both saw a 2.6 percent rise in contract activity compared to last year.
  • New pending sales were up or constant in eight of the 10 ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 34 percent increase in Aldie’s 20105. Chantilly’s 20152 (+27.6 percent) and Ashburn’s 20147 (+22.2 percent) also saw a significant increase in contract activity.
  • Leesburg’s 20175 and 20176 decreased 19.5 and 15.0 percent, respectively, in number of April new pending sales compared to April 2017.
  • Townhomes increased the most in listing activity — up 21.4 percent to 375 new listings from April 2017. Condos (139, +20.9 percent) increased significantly in listing activity compared to last year as well, while the detached home segment (602, +1 percent) saw a slight increase over the same period.
  • Listing activity increased or remained constant in nine of the ten ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 34.8 percent rise in Sterling’s. Chantilly’s 20152 (+25.3 percent) and Purcellville’s 20132 (+20.0 percent) also saw notable increases in number of new listings from last year.
  • The only ZIP code with fewer new listings from April 2017 was Leesburg’s 20176 (‐1.4 percent), decreasing for the third consecutive month.
  • For the 28th consecutive month, homes in April sold faster than the previous year, with half of the April sales listing six days or less.
  • The median DOM was seven days lower than the five‐year April average of 13 days.
  • Half the detached homes sold in April were on the market for 6 days or less—3 days less than the 9‐day median DOM last April. The median DOM for condos was 6 days, 4 days (40.0 percent) lower than the April 2017 median DOM of 10. Townhouses had a median DOM of 4, one day less than last year’s median.
  • Days‐on‐market levels decreased or stayed constant in seven of the 10 ZIP codes analyzed, led by three‐day improvements in Leesburg’s 20175 and 20176.
  • Ashburn’s 20165 and Leesburg’s 20176 median DOM increased four and three days, respectively, from April 2017. Great Falls’ 22066 median DOM increased from 13 to 20 days between listing and closing— the highest median days‐on‐market value in the county.
Joseph Dill
ADMINISTRATOR
PROFILE