Loudoun Home Prices Level, Real Estate Activity Increases in May

Loudoun Home Prices Level, Real Estate Activity Increases in May

Average sale prices were flat but overall home sales activity increased by 5.7 percent year-over-year in May, according to an analysis of the Loudoun County real estate market released this week by the Dulles Area Association of Realtors.

The analysis, prepared by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis based on Bright MLS housing data from MarketStats by ShowingTime, showed continued low inventory creates a seller’s market, but overall market activity – particularly in certain areas – is increasing.

“We continue to see strong activity in the close-in suburbs and the community of Lovettsville,” DAAR President Holly Weatherwax said. “Other areas of the county have slowed, primarily due to a lack of inventory. The townhouse and condominium markets remain extremely strong with May condo sales showing the highest monthly number of closed condominiums on record.”

For the 35th consecutive month, Loudoun County’s active listings declined, reaching the lowest recorded May inventory number in over a decade. At the end of May 2018, inventory was 16.9 percent lower than it was at the same point last year. This left 1,214 homes for sale at month’s end, with 2.2 months of supply heading into June.

May sales increased, however, as the month’s 734 closed sales represented a rise of 5.6 percent over May 2017. In spite of low active listings, sales growth contributed to the continual tightening of inventory. Tightening inventory can in turn suppress sales, keep growth below its potential levels.

Townhomes and condos led sales growth by rising 16.4 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively, from May 2017. The 115 condos sold in May were the highest monthly number of closed condo sales on record. Detached home sales continue to decrease and were down 2.5 percent from last year.

There were also more signed contracts in May 2018 compared to May 2017. New pending sales increased 1.2 percent to 819 and were 6.9 percent greater than the five-year May average of 766. This may translate to increased sales over the coming months.

The analysis also showed:

  • New listing activity decreased in May versus last year (-5.8 percent) as Loudoun County added 1,035 new homes to the market. The erratic change in new listings from month to month signals little long-term relief from the market’s consistently low home supply.
  • Overall price growth continued to stagnate in May as median sale prices were identical to last month and May 2017 at $475,000.
  • Loudoun County homes continued to sell faster than last year, with half of the May sales listing for six days or fewer — identical to last month and down slightly from May 2017’s median of eight. This continues as the lowest median DOM is over a decade.
  • Loudoun County home sellers received, on average, 99.1 percent of original list price in May.
  • May’s median home sale price of $475,000 is identical to last year at this time, and 5 percent greater than the five-year May average.
  • Condo prices are up 4.3 percent vs. May 2017 at $302,500. Townhome and detached single family home median sales prices rose only slightly compared to last year – gaining 0.8 percent from May 2017 to $430,000 and $625,000, respectively.
  • Median price levels were up in five of the eleven Loudoun ZIP codes that had 20 or more sales in May 2018. Chantilly’s 20152 saw the largest increase in median sales price, as it grew 16.1 percent to $499,250.
  • Ashburn’s 20147 also saw a noteworthy year over year price gain (+11.9 percent) in May, making it Loudoun County’s second most expensive zip code.
  • Great Falls’ 22066 remains the county’s zip code with the highest median sales price continues at $915,000, despite declining 8.0 percent from May 2017.
  • For the second straight month, Sterling’s 20165 saw the largest decline in median sales price from the prior year – declining 13.9 percent to $450,000.
  • Sterling’s 20164 continues as the county’s least expensive zip code with a median sale price of $386,500 in May.
  • May closed sales increased in six of the eleven Loudoun ZIP codes analyzed, led by increases of 59 percent in Sterling’s 20164 (23 more sales) over last year. Great Falls’ 22066 (9 more sales) and Lovettsville’s 20180 (6 more sales) also saw significant increases in number of closed sales, each rising about 40 percent over May 2017.
  • Leesburg’s 20176 saw the largest year-over-year decrease in number of sales — declining 17 percent from 106 to 88 sales in May. Aldie’s 20105 (-9.8 percent) and Purcellville’s 20132 (-9.5 percent), also had decreases in the number of home sales compared to May 2017.
  • Contract activity increased 1.2 percent from May 2017 to 819 new pending sales. New pending sales in May were 6.9 percent greater than the 5-year May average of 766.
  • New pending sales were up or constant in five of the eleven ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 35.2 percent increase in Sterling’s 20165. Aldie’s 20105 (77; +30.5 percent) also saw a significant increase in contract activity.
  • Lovettsville’s 20180 and Chantilly’s 20152 decreased 24.0 and 21.3 percent, respectively, in number of May new pending sales compared to May 2017.
    Listing activity increased or remained constant in five of the eleven ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 16.3 percent rise in Leesburg’s 20175 to 100 new listings.
  • Sterling’s 20164 (90; +12.5 percent) also saw a notable increase in number of new listings from last year.
  • Chantilly’s 20152 saw the largest decline in new listings compared to May 2017 with 26.6 percent fewer new listings. Lovettsville’s 20180 and Purcellville’s 20132 also saw decreases in new listings compared to last year at -26.6 percent and -22.9 percent, respectively.
  • Inventories were down from last year in eight of the eleven Loudoun ZIP codes studied, led by Chantilly’s 20152 (-27.7 percent). For the third straight month,
  • Leesburg’s 20176 (-24.9 percent) and Ashburn’s 20148 (-19.9 percent) also saw significant drops in inventory from May 2017.
  • For the third consecutive month, Sterling’s 20165 increased in active listings, gaining 4.6 percent (3 new homes on the market) compared to May 2017.
  • Based on the average monthly sales pace over the past 12 months, the 1,214 active listings heading into June 2018 represent 2.2 months of supply. This is more than one month lower than the 5-year May average supply of 3.4 months.
  • Half the detached homes sold in May were on the market for 7 days or less—4 days less than the 11-day median DOM last May. The median DOM for condos was 11 days, 1 day lower than the May 2017 median DOM of 12. Townhomes had a median DOM of 5, identical to last year’s median.
  • Days-on-market levels decreased or stayed constant in eight of the eleven ZIP codes analyzed, led by 9-day improvements in Purcellville’s 20132 and Lovettsville’s 20180.
  • Great Falls’ 22066 median DOM increased by 6 to 23 days between listing and closing— the highest median days-on-market value in the county. Leesburg’s 20175 median DOM increased 2 days from May 2017.
Joseph Dill