Market Analysis Shows Seller’s Market Has Become ‘New Normal’

Market Analysis Shows Seller’s Market Has Become ‘New Normal’

A seller’s market driven by high demand and low inventory has been become the “new normal” for the Loudoun County residential real estate market, according to a representative of the Dulles Area Association Realtors.

According to a market analysis for June 2018 of Loudoun County real estate activity, the average sale price reached $500,000 for the first time while the number of active listings decreased for the 36th consecutive month.

The analysis, prepared by the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, also showed that that trend of homes selling quickly continued, with half of the home sellers securing a contract in nine days or less.

“As we come to the end of the spring real estate market, our ongoing shortage of listing inventory continues,” DAAR President Holly Weatherwax said. “This has resulted in more competition for homes driving up prices — reducing Days on Market and allowing sellers to get close to asking prices. This lack of inventory seems to be our ‘new normal,’ at least in the short term.”

Despite the pressure on the market caused by low inventory, June sales in Loudoun County increased by 4.6 percent over June 2017. So far in 2018, sales have increased by 1.3 percent compared to the same period in 2017. Condominiums led sales growth, climbing 37.9 percent from June 2017.

Loudoun County Home Prices and Sales

Median Sales Price

Closed Sales

 

Jun-18

Jun-17

YoY

Jun-18

Jun-17

YoY

22066, Great Falls

$942,000

$980,000

-3.90%

24

32

-25.00%

20105, Aldie

$593,000

$537,000

10.40%

83

70

18.60%

20148, Ashburn

$563,500

$569,999

-1.10%

122

97

25.80%

20175, Leesburg

$546,200

$436,000

25.30%

74

73

1.40%

20152, Chantilly

$538,500

$470,000

14.60%

66

67

-1.50%

20176, Leesburg

$527,500

$519,000

1.60%

100

97

3.10%

20132, Purcellville

$507,500

$479,250

5.90%

34

36

-5.60%

Loudoun County

$500,000

$470,000

6.40%

839

802

4.60%

20165, Sterling

$495,000

$427,500

15.80%

73

58

25.90%

20147, Ashburn

$486,500

$485,000

0.30%

136

149

-8.70%

20141, Round Hill

$438,000

$449,000

-2.50%

26

19

36.80%

20180, Lovettsville

$430,000

$450,000

-4.40%

21

17

23.50%

20164, Sterling

$392,500

$380,000

3.30%

60

79

-24.10%

*ZIP codes with fewer than 20 June sales excluded

Other trends identified by the GMU analysis included:

  • The county’s median home sale price reached $500,000 for the first time – an increase of 6.4 percent on an annualized basis. This is the highest monthly median sales value on record.
  • At the end of June 2018, inventory was 22.2 percent lower than at the end of June 2017. The 1,207 homes for sale at month’s end is only a 2.2-month supply heading into July. In most markets, the average selling time is about nine months and a market is considered balanced if it has at least a six-month inventory.
  • New listing activity decreased by 13.4 year-over-year, with 878 new homes to the market. The erratic change in new listings from month to month signals little long-term relief from the market’s consistently low home supply.

RBI Key Housing Trend Metrics

Dulles Area Association of REALTORS ®

 

All Residential

Jun-18

% M-O-M

June-18

% Y-O-Y

Jun-17

% Y-O-2Y

Jun-16

% Y-O-5YAvg

5 Yr Avg

Units Sold (Closed)

839

14.3%

734

4.6%

802

8.0%

777

10.1%

762

Median Sales Price (Closed)

$500,000

5.3%

$475,000

6.4%

$470,000

12.4%

$445,000

8.2%

$462,050

Pending Sales (New)

751

-8.3%

819

4.0%

722

10.9%

677

11.4%

674

Active Listings

1,207

-0.6%

1,214

-22.2%

1,551

-34.7%

1,848

-33.1%

1,803

New Listings

878

-15.2%

1,035

-13.4%

1,014

-4.8%

922

-7.4%

948

Average DOM (Closed)

25

0.0%

25

-19.4%

31

-30.6%

36

-26.5%

34

Listing Discount (Average)

1.2%

0.9%

1.5%

1.7%

1.8%

Avg SP to OLP Ratio

98.8%

99.1%

98.5%

98.3%

98.2%

Detached

Jun-18

% M-O-M

June-18

% Y-O-Y

Jun-17

% Y-O-2Y

Jun-16

% Y-O-5YAvg

5 Yr Avg

Units Sold (Closed)

415

16.6%

356

0.5%

413

5.9%

392

5.1%

395

Median Sales Price (Closed)

$640,000

2.4%

$625,000

5.8%

$604,900

9.4%

$585,000

6.4%

$601,539

Pending Sales (New)

373

-7.2%

402

6.6%

350

18.8%

314

13.0%

330

Active Listings

810

-4.1%

845

-28.9%

1,140

-36.7%

1,279

-34.3%

1,233

New Listings

449

-21.0%

568

-18.4%

550

-5.7%

476

-10.6%

502

Average DOM (Closed)

28

0.0%

28

-28.2%

39

-37.8%

45

-33.3%

42

Listing Discount (Average)

1.6%

1.2%

2.0%

2.2%

2.1%

Avg SP to OLP Ratio

98.4%

98.8%

98.0%

97.8%

97.9%

Attached

Jun-18

% M-O-M

June-18

% Y-O-Y

Jun-17

% Y-O-2Y

Jun-16

% Y-O-5YAvg

5 Yr Avg

Units Sold (Closed)

424

12.2%

378

9.0%

389

10.1%

385

15.5%

367

Median Sales Price (Closed)

$410,000

1.2%

$405,000

5.8%

$387,490

10.1%

$372,500

7.6%

$380,978

Pending Sales (New)

378

-9.4%

417

1.6%

372

4.1%

363

9.9%

344

Active Listings

397

7.6%

369

-3.4%

411

-30.2%

569

-30.2%

569

New Listings

429

-8.1%

467

-7.5%

464

-3.8%

446

-3.8%

446

Average DOM (Closed)

23

4.5%

22

0.0%

23

-11.5%

26

-11.5%

26

Listing Discount (Average)

0.8%

0.6%

1.0%

1.2%

1.3%

Avg SP to OLP Ratio

99.2%

99.4%

99.0%

98.8%

98.7%

 

Data Source: MarketStats by ShowingTime, Bright MLS. Statistics calculated 7/5/2018

  • Closed sales continued to increase – up 4.6 percent for June and 1.3 percent for year over 2017 – but this sales growth contributed to the continual tightening of inventory which in turn can suppress sales and keep growth below its potential levels.
  • Condos led sales growth, climbing 37.9 percent from June 2017. The 131 condos sold in June were the highest monthly number of closed condo sales on record.
  • New pending sales increased 4 percent to 751, which is 11.4 percent more than the five-year June average of 674.
  • Days-on-Market was similar to June 2017, with half of the homes sold on the market for nine days r fewer. That number actually increased by three days year-over-year.
  • Loudoun County home sellers received, on average, 98.8 percent of original list price in June.
  • Condo prices are up 14.8 percent vs. June 2017 at $310,000. Townhomes and detached, single-family home median sales prices rose significantly compared to last year—gaining 5.6 and 5.8 percent from June 2017 to $442,000 and $640,000, respectively. The median sales price for both townhomes and detached homes were both the highest on record.
  • Median price levels were up in eight of the 12 Loudoun ZIP codes that had 20 or more sales in June 2018. Leesburg’s 20175 saw the largest increase, up 25.3 percent to $546,200.
  • Median sale prices in Chantilly’s 20152 increased by 14.6 percent in June.
  • After large declines in April and May, the median price in Sterling’s 20165 increased by 15.8 percent year-over-year.
  • Great Falls’ 22066 remains the county’s ZIP code with the highest median sales price at $942,000, despite declining 3.9 percent from June 2017.
  • Lovettsville’s 20180 ZIP code saw the largest decline in median sales price from the prior year— declining 4.4 percent to $430,000.
  • Loudoun County had 839 closed sales in June—105 more than last month and 37 (4.6 percent) more sales than in June 2017. So far in 2018, sales are up 1.3 percent compared to the same period in 2017.
  • Condos led the sales increase, rising 37.9 percent from June 2017. The 131 condo sales in June was the highest monthly number of closed condo sales on record.
  • Sales of townhomes (293 sales, ‐0.3 percent) and detached homes (415 sales; +0.5 percent) were nearly flat, year-over-year.
  • June closed sales increased in seven of the 12 Loudoun ZIP codes analyzed, led by increases of 36.8 percent in Round Hill’s 20141 (seven more sales).
  • Sterling’s 20165 (15 more sales) and Ashburn’s 20148 (25 more sales) also saw significant increases in number of closed sales, each rising about 26 percent over June 2017.
  • Great Falls’ 22066 saw the largest year‐over‐year decrease in number of sales – declining 25 percent. Sterling’s 20164 (‐24.1 percent) also had a large decrease in the number of home sales compared to June 2017.
  • Contract activity increased 4.0 percent from June 2017 to 751 new pending sales. New pending sales in June were 11.4 percent greater than the five‐year June average of 674 and the highest June total in more than 10 years.
  • Contract activity in the detached home segment increased 6.6 percent from June 2017 to 373 new pending sales. Townhomes (270 new pending sales) increased by 3.9 percent, while condos (108 new pending sales) declined 3.6 percent in contract activity compared to last year.
  • New pending sales were up or constant in eight of the 12 ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 26.7 percent increase in Ashburn’s 20148. Round Hill’s 20141 increased by 18.8 percent.
  • Lovettsville’s 20180 and Leesburg’s 20175 decreased 23.5 and 7.8 percent, respectively, in number of new pending sales compared to June 2017.
  • Listing activity increased in only one of the twelve ZIP codes analyzed— a 5.3 percent rise in Round Hill’s 2014. Aldie’s 20105 and Ashburn’s 20148 saw slight declines.
  • Lovettsville’s 20180 saw the largest decline in new listings compared to June 2017 with 73.1 percent ewer new listings. Chantilly’s 20152 (-31.9 percent) and Leesburg’s 20175 (-35.9) also saw decreases in new listings.
  • Inventory continues to decrease, with active listings down 22.2 percent lower – 334 fewer listings. This is the lowest recorded June inventory number in more than a decade. The June active listing inventory of 1,207 is 33.1 percent lower than the five‐year average of 1,803.
  • Based on the average monthly sales pace over the past 12 months, the 1,207 active listings heading into July 2018 represent 2.2 months of supply. This is more than one month lower than the five‐year June average supply of 3.6 months.
  • Townhouses and condos continue to have the tightest inventory, with 1.4 and 1.5 months of supply, respectively.
  • Loudoun County home sellers received on average 98.8 percent of their original list price in June; 0.3 percentage points less than last month, and 0.3 points more than June 2017.
Joseph Dill
ADMINISTRATOR
PROFILE