A sellers’ market that dominated 2018 looks poised to continue into the new year, according to an analysis of the Loudoun County real estate market released this week by the Dulles Area Association of Realtors.
Low inventory and high demand continued in the analysis of November residential real estate activity, as active listings declined for the 41st consecutive month.
According to the analysis, which was prepared for DAAR by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis, tight inventory was the cause of a decrease in both new pending sales (down 5.9 percent) and closed sales (down 6.4 percent) compared to November 2017.
“The trend of fewer listings, shorter listing periods and higher prices continued in November,” DAAR President Holly Weatherwax said. “It is not unusual to see real estate transactions slow at this time of year, but this appears to be part of a larger trend that we have seen month-over-month in 2018.”
Key findings include:
- There were 967 active listings in Loudoun County in November, 12.6 percent fewer than the same month last year.
- Active listings have declined compared to the same month in the prior year for 41 consecutive months. Active listings last increased year-over-year in June 2015.
- The decline in active listings was widespread. Active listings of detached homes, townhomes, condos all decreased. Furthermore, active listings did not increase in any of the nine zip codes analyzed.
- New pending sales in Loudoun County declined 5.9 percent in November year-over-year, likely the result of low inventory.
- November closed sales in Loudoun County also declined, decreasing 6.4 percent from November 2017. Lower closed sales, year-over-year, was expected given the large decline in pending sales recorded in October.
- The median sales price in Loudoun County was $485,000 in November, 6.2 percent greater than November 2017 and 9.2 percent greater than the 5-year November average. The median sales price in November was the highest November median sales price in over a decade.
- The median sales price in Loudoun County has been stable or growing, year-over-year, for 11 consecutive months
- Despite the high median sales price, sellers continue to receive close to full asking price. The average sales price to original list price was 98.0 percent in November, 0.8 percentage points greater than November 2017.
- While total inventory remains tight, new listings increased 7.8 percent in November 2018 compared to November 2017. While the increase in new listings is relatively modest by number of units (+32), any increase is welcome news in these tight market conditions.
- The median sales price in Loudoun County increased to $485,000 in November, a 6.2 percent increase from November 2017. While the median sales price in the county was unchanged from last month, the median sales price was 9.2 percent higher than the 5-year November average of $444,180.
- The increase in Loudoun’s median home sales price was led by condos, which increased 11.5 percent from November 2017 to November 2018. Detached homes and townhomes increased year-over-year 6.6 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
- Median sales prices were up in five of the nine zip codes analyzed with 20 or more sales. The median sales price in Leesburg’s 20175 increased the most, gaining 41.8 percent from November 2017 to November 2018.
- The median sales price in four zip codes with 20 or more sales declined. The median sales price in Sterling’s 20164 declined the most, decreasing 16.7 percent to $325,000 in November 2018. As always, changes in sales prices are affected by month to month changes in the characteristics of units sold.
- The number of closed sales in Loudoun County declined 6.4 percent from 467 in November 2017 to 437 in November 2018 but still remained 3.3 percent above the long run (5-year) November average of 423.
- The decline in closed sales was driven entirely by the detached homes market segment. There were 15.9 percent fewer closed sales of detached homes in November 2018 as compared with the same month last year. Closed sales of townhomes (+3.4%) and condos (+7.5%) both increased in November from the same month the year prior.
- November closed sales increased or remained unchanged in five of the nine zip codes analyzed, year-over-year. Closed sales in Sterling’s 20165 increased the most and were 32.4 percent more than November 2017.
- Closed sales decreased in four zip codes analyzed. The largest decline occurred in Purcellville’s 20132, where there were 42.1 fewer closed sales than in November 2017.
- There were 381 new pending sales in Loudoun County in November 2018 – a 5.9 percent decline versus November 2017 and 10.1 percent fewer than the 5-year November average.
- The decline in new pending sales was the result of decreased new pending sales of townhomes (-10.8%) and condos (-14.5%) against a modest 1.1 percent increase for detached homes.
- New pending sales increased or remained unchanged in four of the nine zip codes analyzed. While new pending sales in Leesburg’s 20176 increased the most year-over-year at 3.6 percent.
- New pending sales declined in five of the nine zip codes analyzed. Closed sales declined by 34.1 percent in Leesburg’s 20175 and 23.7 percent in Chantilly’s 20152.
- New listings in Loudon County increased 7.8 percent from 412 in November 2017 to 444 in November 2018. Despite the increase, new listings remain 7.3 percent below the 5-year November average of 479.
- The growth of new listings in Loudoun County was led by detached homes, which increased 33.0 percent from 182 in November 2017 to 242 in November 2018. While new listings of condos in Loudoun County rose 6.6 percent from November 2017, new listings of townhomes were down 18.9 percent.
- New listings in November increased in four of the nine zip codes analyzed. The largest increase in new listings occurred in Leesburg’s 20175 where there were 58.1 percent more new listings as compared with November 2017.
- New listings in November decreased in five of the nine zip codes analyzed. New listings in Ashburn’s 20148 declined by 17.2 percent, the most significant decline among the zip codes analyzed.
- Active listings in Loudoun County continued to decline. There were 967 active listings in November, 12.6 percent fewer than November 2017 and almost 50 percent fewer than the recent peak in November 2014. Furthermore, November active listings in Loudoun County were 30.8 percent below the 5-year November average of 1,397.
- Active listings of detached homes declined 13.2 percent from November 2017 to November 2018. Over the same period, active listings of townhomes decreased 12.9 percent and active listings of condos decreased 8.6 percent.
- November active listings did not increase in a single zip code analyzed, though Sterling’s 20164 remained unchanged with 44 active listings.
- November active listings declined in eight of the nine zip codes analyzed. Active listings decreased the most in Chantilly’s 20152, declining by 28.3 percent.The November average sales price to original list price (SP to OLP) continued to climb in 2018. Sellers in Loudoun County received 98.0 percent of the original listing price in November 2018, 0.8 percentage points more than in 2017.
- The average SP to OLP increased in all three market segments (detached, townhomes, condos). The average SP to OLP of condos increased the most, gaining 0.6 percentage points from 98.9 in November 2017 to 99.5 in November 2018.
- The average SP to OLP increased in seven of the nine zip codes analyzed. Sterling’s 20165 average SP to OLP increase the most, increasing by 2.2 percentage points from November 2017 to November 2018.
- The average SP to OLP decreased in two of the nine zip codes analyzed. The average SP to OLP in Leesburg’s 20175 decreased the most, declining 0.6 points to 97.0 in November 2018.
- The median days on market (DOM) decreased from 57 days in November of 2017 to 49 days in November of 2018.
- The median DOM declined from November 2017 to November 2018 in all three market segments. The median DOM for detached homes decreased by 8 days, townhomes decreased by 6 days, and condos decreased by 8 days.
- The median DOM decreased in seven of the nine zip codes analyzed. The largest decline was in Aldie’s 20105,
- where the median DOM decreased from 72 days to 46 days.
- The median DOM increased in only two of the nine zip codes analyzed, Leesburg’s 20175 (up 11) and Sterling’s 20165 (up 3).